The planet watches the news with bated breath, Ignition is particularly important in the Middle EastDirectly after Iran attacks Israel. All eyes are on his price Oil And when markets open tomorrow, Monday, April 15, international prices are forecast to rise above 100. Dollars The barrel is rising.
And the big question How the new “spark” in black gold prices will affect inflation And central banks in Europe and the U.S. are poised to initiate rate cuts at a particularly weak time when the economy, global inflation, is falling. Interest rates.
The risk of further inflation from rising oil prices (including through the supply chain) is particularly acute at this time, as it could lead to central bankers. Deferral of interest rate cutThis will further “hurt” the eurozone economy. Bringing the threat of recession head-onIt had, after all, escaped in the present… in the short term.
According to a Bloomberg report, there is a threat of a direct Iranian attack on Israel It's already priced in at least partiallyBrent is up 3.5% so far this month, Crude oil topped $90 a barrel for the first time since October.
However, if there is uncertainty on the table about the continuation of re-ignition, Oil will reach $100 a barrel And this Shares As the S&P 500 recorded last week, it remains volatile The decline was the worst since October.
The important Strait of Hormuz
Oil markets' reaction to previous attacks on ships around Yemen's coast by Houthi rebels was “measured” because those attacks did not directly target the energy supply chain.
Now, with Iran on the rise, traders are turning their attention back to flows The most geopolitically important is the “Strait of Hormuz”, a sea strait through which one-fifth of the world's oil trade passes.
Any development that could affect the flow of oil by tanker through the Strait of Hormuz Coupled with any attack on tankers, oil's risk premium could increase.
Traders are refocusing their attention on the geopolitically important strait of the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world's oil trade passes – any development that could affect the flow of oil by tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil risk premium
Traders expect oil prices to rise when markets open on Monday. However, there are analysts who say the reaction of international markets will be cool for two reasons:
- Iran has announced that it believes that Israel will retaliate if Israel does not respond to the attack on the Iranian Embassy in Damascus
- The United States refuses to support an immediate Israeli retaliation, which could prevent further escalation
Shares
Meanwhile, Israel's stock market opened today Sunday, April 14, as Tel Aviv allowed investors “financial freedom” to respond to an Iranian attack on Israel, according to Bloomberg's live streaming. After the open, stocks on the TA-35 index board lost gains and the general index fell 0.2%, though it rose 0.7% at the open.
The general index later returned to positive territory with gains of 0.4%. In contrast, stocks in the Arab world are falling. Saudi Arabia's main stock market fell 1.2%, while the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia expressed deep concern over its “military escalation in the region.
Stockbrokers' natural reaction to such events is usually to “sell now,” London-based stockbroker Mark Taylor told Bloomberg News. Gold, dollar and yen gain when geopolitical tensions rise.
Middle East stock trading this Sunday is the next test of investor sentiment. Markets won't like the unprecedented nature of Iran's attack, although they can take some ground from his announcement that he “could end things.”
Currency of Iran
On Sunday, April 14, Iran's currency fell to a historic low against the US dollar. The riyal fell 4% to 705,000/USD.
The Bitcoin
Bitcoin's decline on Saturday gave an early glimpse of what the markets will look like tomorrow, Monday. Despite suffering its biggest selloff in more than a year, the cryptocurrency rallied in an early sign of impending volatility in asset markets as investors digested the prospect of military expansion in the Middle East. Its value Bitcoin rose 3.9% after losing 8.3% earlier.
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