Shaken imported drop siphon Greek stock market After fading, buyers are re-emerging with relatively cautious measures. Most major Greek stocks are clearly attractive, but investors looking to “bet” on the general index’s trend should first turn their eyes abroad.
Apparently, a huge sales wave hit them International stock markets He vented his anger on Monday night, dragging down the Greek market from Friday to Monday Wall Street. Things have started to stabilize since Tuesday morning, after the Japanese market first gave a signal related to an impressive recovery.
An optimistic but at the same time dominant in most markets alert environment, This is more normal after the shock caused by investors. In most cases, the stock’s rally begins to recoup some of the losses and investors begin to look forward to the quiet rest of summer again, at least until they return from vacation.
But what the Greek stock market could have in store for us in the coming days and weeks after the three-day period was – at least on paper – a big part of the gains in stocks since the start of the year.
On the last day of July, Mr General code The Athens stock market closed at 1,478.17, 2% lower than the year’s highest point (1,505.35) and 13% higher than its close in the first session of 2024 (1,307.53).
her Monday, GT It moved to 1,320.77 points and closed at 1,341.23 points, meaning we went from the highest point of the year to the lowest point in three sessions. At yesterday’s close, the losses are now very small as the index was seen at 1,394.29 units at the end of this session.
Despite the significant recovery from the lows, it is a fact that we are still approximately 6% below July 31 levels, and if we use the general index as a relative measure, if we look at individual stocks, we can see that there. There are many cases with even bigger losses.
The Speed The way things have moved from late last week to today makes predictions about what’s going to happen more risky than usual, but there’s no harm in trying to draw some broad lines.
Yesterday’s close found the index near the first area that could play a role of resistance based on its movements over the past few months. The area between 1,400 and 1,420 points has supported the general index in June and July and according to theory and our experience, there is a significant chance that this will now be a point of increased selling.
If we can exceed that, it will be very positive news and will definitely encourage other buyers. On the other hand, if we fail to move higher and if we fail to break the specified resistance, the general index can feel relatively safe as long as it is above the 200-day moving average, which is currently above 1,370 units.
A potential downside breakout would be a very bad sign and trigger further selling. When it comes to fundamentals, there is no doubt that most stocks are cheaper than expensive. If you look at the targets that stock market analysts have set for Greek blue chips, this is easily seen as in most cases they are significantly higher than current share prices.
But we know that Low ratings It is not always enough to attract investors because the mentality of international investors plays a very important role. Logic says that if the situation in the international markets improves, many buyers will come back and our market will come back with the intention of crossing the area of 1,400 to 1,420 units, following the first scenario we mentioned. It was at the end of July.
But can we be sure that normalcy will return to international stock markets? Although there are many signs that this will be done at this time, it is wise not to get excited just yet.
This is a fact:
a) Japan’s central bank assured markets that it would not rush into further interest rate hikes, so the yen fell again against the US dollar;
b) There is a fear that the US economy will go into recession immediately,
c) concerns eased by Warren Buffett’s revelations about extensive stock selling;
d) Most investors who “need to sell” for some reason have probably already done so
c) Despite wanting to “punish” Israel, it is beginning to appear that Iran does not want to cause a major crisis in the Middle East.
All this is certainly positive for the psychology of the international markets, but we must not forget that only two days have passed since the international markets almost collapsed, and at the same time there is an important question.
Given the increase in market volatility, portfolio managers may again aggressively buy stocks or risk assessment departments at investment banks and Hedge funds This will force them to be a little more cautious due to the increase in investment risk.
We cannot answer such questions, but we are sure that they are not without importance.
The market will answer this question and many others as the days go by. Every day that passes without the revelation of new aggressive selling on international stock markets increases the possibility of realizing a positive scenario for the Greek stock market.
For investors interested in short-term movements, the international situation appears to be normal at the same time as GT. With the Athens Stock Exchange covering over 1,370 units, new purchases or maintaining buy positions would be a logical option.
Reiterating that forecasts are very risky at this time, we suspect that the probability of having pleasant developments is slightly higher than the opposite. However, it is obvious that any sign of decline in the international markets or the downward breakdown of the general index level that we mentioned above should make all investors very cautious and reduce the investment risk they undertake.
