Global temperatures are rising at an “unprecedented” rate and the time is running out to avoid the worst, a major international climate change study warns, as Brazil struggles to recover from massive floods and India and Pakistan simmer in unprecedented heat waves.
Temperatures are now rising by 0.26 degrees per decade and are close to the 1.5 degree limit set by the international community by the end of the century, the study warns. Earth system science data56 eminent scientists from 44 institutions signed.
By comparison, the rate of temperature rise during the period 1970-2010 was only 0.18 degrees per decade.
“Although this acceleration is generally consistent with climate models, it is a worrying sign that the effects of climate change will worsen more rapidly,” the researchers warn.
Kilona, who works in the fields, tries to cool herself with a makeshift fan in New Delhi, where temperatures have approached 50 degrees in the past few days (Reuters)
“Faster Than Ever”
The annual survey aims to update the climate indicators of the UN Climate Report published in 2021 and will be updated in 2027. The data will feed into international climate negotiations and could affect new national emissions targets for coal. Delivered in 2025.
“Global temperatures are still moving in the wrong direction and moving faster than ever before,” said Professor Piers Forster of the University of Leeds, who led the study.
“Our analysis shows that despite climate action reducing the increase in greenhouse gas emissions, the amount of human-caused warming has continued to increase over the past year,” he said.
Key Findings:
- Anthropogenic warming is increasing at a rate “unprecedented on record”, reaching 0.26 degrees per decade in 2014-23.
- The average temperature by the end of 2023 was 1.43 degrees above pre-industrial levels. Of this rise, 1.31 points is attributed to carbon emissions and the rest to natural factors such as El Niño.
- Anthropogenic temperature increase reached 1.19 degrees during the period 2014-2023, compared to an estimate of 1.14 degrees for the 2013-2022 decade reported last year.
- Greenhouse gas emissions are the main cause, but reductions in sulfur dioxide pollution, which reflect solar radiation back into space, play a role in accelerating climate change.
- The amount of carbon dioxide humanity can emit before reaching the 1.5 degree limit has been cut from 500 billion tonnes in 2020 in the UN report to just 200 billion tonnes in early 2024. This amount corresponds to emissions four years old.
In Brazil, the Rio Grande do Sul suffered its worst flooding in its history in May (Reuters)
Despite the worrying findings, Professor Forster saw “little confidence” in the findings. The rate of increase in carbon emissions appears to have slowed since 2000, meaning “we don’t need a large, incremental acceleration of climate change.”
However, his partner Pierre Friedlingstein pointed out at a press conference that this was not enough.
“It is not enough to have a stable broadcast. Net emissions must drop to zero,” he said. “As long as emissions continue at these levels, warming will continue at these levels.
And without drastic measures, the agreed threshold of 1.5 points will be breached and become the “long-term average” over the next decade.